Abstrak
Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak Quantitative Easing (QE) terhadap stabilitas makroekonomi Indonesia di tengah meningkatnya volatilitas global. Meskipun QE dirancang untuk mendorong likuiditas dan pemulihan ekonomi, penerapannya di negara berkembang seperti Indonesia menghadapi berbagai kendala struktural, terutama terkait pengendalian inflasi, stabilitas nilai tukar, dan independensi kebijakan moneter.
Menggunakan 64 observasi data triwulanan periode 2007–2023, penelitian ini menerapkan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan model ekonometrika nonlinier, meliputi Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR), Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR), dan Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR), untuk menangkap dinamika kebijakan yang bersifat regime-dependent dan time-varying.
Analisis difokuskan pada variabel makro-keuangan Indonesia, yaitu suku bunga kebijakan, inflasi, pertumbuhan PDB, nilai tukar efektif riil (REER), indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG), dan surat utang negara (SUN). Kerangka analisis mengadopsi konsep New Monetary Trinity, yang mengintegrasikan stabilitas keuangan sebagai pilar tambahan selain stabilitas nilai tukar dan otonomi moneter.
Hasil utama menunjukkan adanya hubungan nonlinier dan dinamis antarvariabel. Pada rezim volatilitas rendah, QE berperan dalam menjaga stabilitas inflasi dan pasar obligasi. Namun, pada rezim volatilitas tinggi, QE justru meningkatkan tekanan terhadap pertumbuhan PDB dan melemahkan independensi kebijakan moneter. Selain itu, mekanisme burden sharing antara bank sentral dan pemerintah terbukti krusial dalam menjaga likuiditas dan kepercayaan investor.
Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya strategi kebijakan fiskal–moneter yang adaptif dan terkoordinasi untuk memperkuat ketahanan ekonomi Indonesia, sekaligus memberikan implikasi relevan bagi negara berkembang lainnya.
Kata kunci: Quantitative Easing, Monetary Trinity, TVP-VAR, Stabilitas Ekonomi, Kebijakan Moneter Adaptif
Diajukan: 22 Mei 2025 | Diterima: 13 Juni 2025 | Dipublikasikan: 10 Agustus 2025
Abstract
This study examines the impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) on Indonesia’s macroeconomic stability amid rising global volatility. While QE is intended to stimulate liquidity and support economic recovery, its implementation in emerging economies such as Indonesia faces significant structural constraints, particularly related to inflation control, exchange rate management, and monetary policy independence.
Using 64 quarterly observations from 2007 to 2023, this quantitative research employs nonlinear econometric models, including Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR), Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR), and Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR), to capture regime-dependent and time-varying policy dynamics.
The analysis focuses on Indonesia’s key macro-financial variables, namely the policy interest rate, inflation, GDP growth, real effective exchange rate (REER), stock market index (IHSG), and government bonds (SUN). The study adopts the New Monetary Trinity framework, which integrates financial stability alongside exchange rate stability and monetary autonomy.
The findings reveal nonlinear and time-varying relationships among the variables. In low-volatility regimes, QE supports inflation control and bond market stability. Conversely, in high-volatility regimes, QE intensifies pressure on GDP growth and erodes monetary policy independence. Furthermore, the burden-sharing mechanism between the central bank and the government plays a critical role in sustaining liquidity and maintaining investor confidence.
These results underscore the importance of adaptive and well-coordinated fiscal–monetary strategies to enhance economic resilience in Indonesia and other emerging markets.
Keywords: Quantitative Easing, Monetary Trinity, TVP-VAR, Economic Stability, Adaptive Monetary Policy
Submitted: May 22, 2025 | Accepted: June 13, 2025 | Published: August 10, 2025