within the New Monetary Trinity Framework
🇮🇩 Ringkasan Artikel
Artikel ini menganalisis dampak kebijakan Quantitative Easing (QE) terhadap stabilitas ekonomi Indonesia dalam kerangka New Monetary Trinity, yang menekankan keterkaitan antara stabilitas inflasi, stabilitas nilai tukar, dan stabilitas keuangan. Berangkat dari keterbatasan kebijakan suku bunga konvensional—terutama pada periode krisis—studi ini berargumen bahwa efektivitas QE di negara berkembang bersifat kontekstual, tidak linear, dan bergantung pada rezim ekonomi.
Menggunakan data triwulanan Indonesia periode 2007–2023, penelitian ini menerapkan pendekatan nonlinear dan time-varying econometric models, yaitu Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR), Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR), dan Time-Varying Parameter VAR (TVP-VAR). Variabel yang dianalisis mencakup suku bunga kebijakan, inflasi, pertumbuhan PDB, nilai tukar efektif riil (REER), indeks saham (IHSG), dan surat utang negara (SUN) sebagai proksi utama instrumen QE.
Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa dampak QE berbeda secara signifikan antara kondisi volatilitas rendah dan tinggi. Dalam rezim volatilitas rendah, QE relatif efektif dalam menjaga stabilitas inflasi dan memperkuat pasar obligasi pemerintah. Sebaliknya, pada rezim volatilitas tinggi, QE cenderung meningkatkan tekanan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan mempersempit ruang independensi kebijakan moneter akibat meningkatnya sensitivitas terhadap guncangan eksternal.
Temuan dari BVAR dan TVP-VAR memperkuat hasil TVAR dengan menunjukkan bahwa mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter bersifat adaptif dan berubah dari waktu ke waktu, terutama selama periode krisis seperti pandemi COVID-19. Studi ini juga menegaskan peran strategis SUN sebagai jangkar stabilitas keuangan sekaligus kanal koordinasi fiskal–moneter.
Secara keseluruhan, artikel ini menyimpulkan bahwa QE di Indonesia bukan instrumen kebijakan yang netral, melainkan harus dirancang secara adaptif sesuai kondisi ekonomi. Kerangka New Monetary Trinity memberikan dasar konseptual yang lebih relevan untuk memahami kebijakan moneter di negara berkembang dalam menghadapi ketidakpastian global.
🇬🇧 Article Summary
This article examines the impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) on Indonesia’s economic stability within the New Monetary Trinity framework, which emphasizes the interaction between price stability, exchange rate stability, and financial stability. Motivated by the limitations of conventional interest rate policies—particularly during crisis periods—the study argues that QE effectiveness in emerging economies is context-dependent, nonlinear, and regime-specific.
Using quarterly Indonesian data from 2007 to 2023, the study applies a set of nonlinear and time-varying econometric models, including Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR), Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR), and Time-Varying Parameter VAR (TVP-VAR). The analysis incorporates key macro-financial variables such as the policy interest rate, inflation, GDP growth, the real effective exchange rate (REER), stock market index (IHSG), and government bonds (SUN) as the primary QE transmission channel.
Empirical results reveal that QE effects differ markedly across economic regimes. Under low-volatility conditions, QE contributes to inflation control and strengthens government bond market stability. In contrast, during high-volatility regimes, QE intensifies pressure on economic growth and constrains monetary policy independence due to heightened exposure to external shocks.
Findings from the BVAR and TVP-VAR models reinforce the TVAR results by demonstrating that monetary policy transmission mechanisms evolve over time, particularly during crisis episodes such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The study further highlights the strategic role of government bonds (SUN) as both a financial stability anchor and a critical instrument for fiscal–monetary coordination.
Overall, the article concludes that QE in Indonesia cannot be treated as a neutral policy instrument. Instead, it requires an adaptive design aligned with prevailing economic conditions. The New Monetary Trinity framework offers a more suitable conceptual foundation for understanding monetary policy in emerging markets facing global uncertainty.