Dr. Dudi Duta Akbar

Electrification Shock, Solar PV, and Monetary Policy Transmission

—

by

dudidutaakbar@gmail.com
in
DSGE Electrification Research Dashboard
⚡ DSGE + Electrification + Dynare + IRF

Electrification Shock, Solar PV, and Monetary Policy Transmission

Dashboard ini mengembangkan model DSGE untuk membaca dampak elektrifikasi, ekspansi solar PV, shock harga energi fosil, inflasi energi, investasi hijau, dan respons kebijakan moneter.

Roadmap Research

Bagian ini terkunci

Masukkan password untuk membuka roadmap riset.

Judul Riset Utama

Electrification Shock and Monetary Policy Transmission: A DSGE-Based Analysis of Solar PV Expansion in Emerging Markets

Alternatif Indonesia: Green Electrification and Macroeconomic Stability: DSGE Evidence from Indonesia’s Solar PV Transition.

Model DSGE: Struktur Matematis

1. Household Utility

\[ \max E_0 \sum_{t=0}^{\infty}\beta^t \left[ \frac{C_t^{1-\sigma}}{1-\sigma} – \frac{L_t^{1+\varphi}}{1+\varphi} + \chi_e \frac{Elec_t^{1-\nu}}{1-\nu} \right] \]

2. Budget Constraint

\[ P_tC_t + P_tI_t + P_t^e Elec_t = W_tL_t + R_tK_t + \Pi_t \]

3. Capital Accumulation

\[ K_{t+1}=(1-\delta)K_t+I_t \]

4. Euler Equation

\[ C_t^{-\sigma} = \beta E_t \left[ C_{t+1}^{-\sigma}(1+r_{t+1}) \right] \]

Energy-Augmented Production

5. Fungsi Produksi

\[ Y_t=A_tK_t^{\alpha}L_t^{1-\alpha-\eta}E_t^{\eta} \]

6. Komposisi Energi

\[ E_t=\theta_s Solar_t+\theta_f Fossil_t \]

7. Marginal Cost

\[ MC_t= \frac{1}{A_t} \left(\frac{W_t}{1-\alpha-\eta}\right)^{1-\alpha-\eta} \left(\frac{R_t}{\alpha}\right)^{\alpha} \left(\frac{P_t^e}{\eta}\right)^{\eta} \]

8. Taylor Rule

\[ i_t=\rho_i i_{t-1} +(1-\rho_i)(\phi_{\pi}\pi_t+\phi_y\hat{Y}_t) +\varepsilon_t^i \]

Log-Linear System

\[ \hat{Y}_t= \hat{A}_t+\alpha\hat{K}_t+ (1-\alpha-\eta)\hat{L}_t+ \eta\hat{E}_t \] \[ \hat{K}_{t+1}= \delta\hat{I}_t+(1-\delta)\hat{K}_t \] \[ \hat{Y}_t=\omega_c\hat{C}_t+\omega_i\hat{I}_t \]
\[ \hat{C}_t= E_t\hat{C}_{t+1} – \frac{1}{\sigma} (\hat{i}_t-E_t\hat{\pi}_{t+1}) \] \[ \pi_t=\beta E_t\pi_{t+1}+\kappa \widehat{MC}_t \] \[ \hat{Solar}_t=\rho_s\hat{Solar}_{t-1}+\varepsilon_t^s \]

Kalkulator Simulasi DSGE Sederhana

Kalkulator ini bersifat ilustratif untuk membantu membaca arah respons IRF: solar PV shock cenderung menekan biaya energi, sedangkan fossil price shock meningkatkan marginal cost dan inflasi.


IRF Solar PV Shock

Solar PV shock meningkatkan pasokan listrik terbarukan, menekan biaya energi, menurunkan inflasi energi, lalu mendorong output dan investasi.

IRF Fossil Price Shock

Fossil price shock menaikkan marginal cost, mendorong inflasi, memicu respons suku bunga, lalu menekan investasi dan output.

Ilustrasi Riil Mekanisme Ekonomi

\[ SolarPV\uparrow \Rightarrow RenewableElectricity\uparrow \Rightarrow EnergyCost\downarrow \Rightarrow MC_t\downarrow \Rightarrow \pi_t\downarrow \Rightarrow i_t\downarrow/\text{stabil} \Rightarrow I_t\uparrow \Rightarrow Y_t\uparrow \]
\[ FossilPrice\uparrow \Rightarrow EnergyCost\uparrow \Rightarrow MC_t\uparrow \Rightarrow \pi_t\uparrow \Rightarrow i_t\uparrow \Rightarrow I_t\downarrow \Rightarrow Y_t\downarrow \]

Tahapan Detail Penelitian sampai Pemrograman

1

Definisi Masalah

Rumuskan isu elektrifikasi, solar PV, inflasi energi, dan transmisi kebijakan moneter.

2

Model Teoretis

Susun household, firm, energy sector, dan monetary authority.

3

FOC

Turunkan Euler equation, labor supply, demand for capital, dan marginal cost.

4

Steady State

Tentukan nilai parameter: \( \beta,\alpha,\delta,\eta,\rho_i,\phi_\pi \).

5

Log-Linearization

Ubah model nonlinear menjadi sistem linear di sekitar steady state.

6

Dynare Coding

Tulis variabel, parameter, persamaan model, shock, dan perintah simulasi.

7

IRF Analysis

Baca respons \(Y,C,I,K,L,\pi,i,MC,E\) terhadap shock.

8

Empirical Validation

Bandingkan hasil DSGE dengan BVAR/TVAR.

9

Policy Output

Rumuskan policy mix: moneter, energi, fiskal hijau, dan stabilitas keuangan.

Template Koding Dynare / MATLAB

File disimpan sebagai: electrification_dsge.mod

/*
  Electrification Shock and Monetary Policy Transmission
  DSGE Model with Solar PV and Fossil Energy Shock
*/

var y c i k l w r pi mc a e solar fossil pe;
varexo eps_a eps_s eps_f eps_i;

parameters beta sigma phi alpha eta delta rho_a rho_s rho_f rho_i
           phi_pi phi_y kappa omega_c omega_i theta_s theta_f;

/* Calibration */
beta    = 0.99;
sigma   = 2.00;
phi     = 1.50;
alpha   = 0.33;
eta     = 0.10;
delta   = 0.025;

rho_a   = 0.90;
rho_s   = 0.80;
rho_f   = 0.70;
rho_i   = 0.75;

phi_pi  = 1.50;
phi_y   = 0.20;
kappa   = 0.10;

omega_c = 0.75;
omega_i = 0.25;

theta_s = 0.40;
theta_f = 0.60;

model(linear);

/* 1. Production Function */
y = a + alpha*k(-1) + (1-alpha-eta)*l + eta*e;

/* 2. Energy Composition */
e = theta_s*solar + theta_f*fossil;

/* 3. Resource Constraint */
y = omega_c*c + omega_i*i;

/* 4. Capital Accumulation */
k = (1-delta)*k(-1) + delta*i;

/* 5. Labor Supply */
sigma*c + phi*l = w;

/* 6. Euler Equation */
c = c(+1) - (1/sigma)*(r - pi(+1));

/* 7. Marginal Cost */
mc = -a + alpha*r + (1-alpha-eta)*w + eta*pe;

/* 8. New Keynesian Phillips Curve */
pi = beta*pi(+1) + kappa*mc;

/* 9. Taylor Rule */
r = rho_i*r(-1) + (1-rho_i)*(phi_pi*pi + phi_y*y) + eps_i;

/* 10. Productivity Shock */
a = rho_a*a(-1) + eps_a;

/* 11. Solar PV Shock */
solar = rho_s*solar(-1) + eps_s;

/* 12. Fossil Price Shock */
fossil = rho_f*fossil(-1) + eps_f;

/* 13. Electricity Price Equation */
pe = fossil - solar;

end;

/* Initial values */
initval;
y = 0;
c = 0;
i = 0;
k = 0;
l = 0;
w = 0;
r = 0;
pi = 0;
mc = 0;
a = 0;
e = 0;
solar = 0;
fossil = 0;
pe = 0;
end;

steady;
check;

/* Shock Scenarios */
shocks;
var eps_s; stderr 0.01;
var eps_f; stderr 0.01;
var eps_a; stderr 0.01;
var eps_i; stderr 0.01;
end;

/* Simulation */
stoch_simul(order=1, irf=24)
y c i k l w r pi mc e solar fossil pe;

Cara Menjalankan di MATLAB/Dynare

% STEP 1: arahkan MATLAB ke folder file .mod
cd 'C:\Users\NamaAnda\Documents\MATLAB\DSGE_Electrification'

% STEP 2: tambahkan path Dynare
addpath C:\dynare\5.4\matlab

% STEP 3: jalankan model
dynare electrification_dsge.mod

% STEP 4: baca output
% - steady state
% - eigenvalues
% - Blanchard-Kahn condition
% - IRF graphs

% STEP 5: jika ingin shock khusus solar saja,
% aktifkan hanya:
% var eps_s; stderr 0.01;
Full Pipeline: Electrification → DSGE → Dynare → IRF → BVAR/TVAR → Policy Mix
DSGE Electrification Indonesia Dashboard

DSGE Electrification & Monetary Policy (Indonesia)

Framework ini menghubungkan elektrifikasi global, solar PV, inflasi energi, dan kebijakan moneter menggunakan DSGE + Dynare + IRF + BVAR/TVAR.

Roadmap Research (Protected)

DSGE Model

\[ Y_t = A_t K_t^{\alpha} L_t^{1-\alpha-\eta} E_t^{\eta} \]
\[ E_t = \theta_s Solar_t + \theta_f Fossil_t \]
\[ C_t^{-\sigma} = \beta E_t[C_{t+1}^{-\sigma}(1+r)] \]
\[ i_t = \rho i_{t-1} + (1-\rho)(\phi_\pi \pi_t + \phi_y Y_t) \]

Log Linear

\[ \hat{Y}_t = \alpha \hat{K}_t + (1-\alpha-\eta)\hat{L}_t + \eta \hat{E}_t \]
\[ \pi_t = \beta E_t\pi_{t+1} + \kappa MC_t \]

Kalkulator DSGE

Solar Shock
Fossil Shock

IRF Solar

IRF Fossil

Data Indonesia (Klik Langsung)

Dynare Code

var y c i k pi r solar fossil;

parameters beta alpha;

beta=0.99;
alpha=0.33;

model;
y = alpha*k(-1) + (1-alpha)*c;
k = (1-0.025)*k(-1)+i;
pi = 0.5*y;
r = 1.5*pi;
end;

steady;
stoch_simul;

Referensi Akademik